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Dr. Farley is Associate Professor of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Michigan Medical Center, Ann Arbor, MI. Dr. Weinstein is Professor and Chairman, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH. Dr. Aamoth is Orthopaedic Surgeon, Minneapolis Orthopedics, Minneapolis, MN. Dr. Shapiro is Orthopaedic Surgeon and Vice President, Orthopaedic Healthcare Northwest, Eugene, OR. Dr. Jacobs is Crown Family Professor of Orthopaedic Surgery, Rush Medical Center, Chicago, IL. Dr. McCarthy is Clinical Professor, Orthopaedic Surgery, New England Baptist Hospital, Boston, MA. Mr. Kramer is Director, Education Programs, American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons, Rosemont, IL.
Dr. Farley or the department with which she is affiliated has stock or stock options held in Medtronic. Dr. Jacobs or the department with which he is affiliated has received research or institutional support from, and serves as as a consultant to or is an employee of, Zimmer, Wright Medical, Medtronics, Archus Orthopedics, and Spinal Motion. Dr. McCarthy or the department with which he is affiliated has received research or institutional support from Stryker Orthopaedics and is affiliated with, serves as a consultant to, or is an employee of Arthrex, Innomed, and United Health Care. None of the following authors or the departments with which they are affiliated has received anything of value from or owns stock in a commercial company or institution related directly or indirectly to the subject of this article: Dr. Weinstein, Dr. Aamoth, Dr. Shapiro, and Mr. Kramer.
Reprint requests: Dr. Farley, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Michigan Medical School, 1500 E Medical Center Drive, 2912 Taubman Center, Box 0328, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-0328.
Since the 1970s, workforce analysis for orthopaedic surgery has predicted a surplus of physicians into the 21st century. In 1998, the RAND study predicted a surplus of 4,100 orthopaedists in 2010. As we approach 2010, we find no surplus. The projected population growth during the next 20 years of those older than age 65 years presupposes a greater need for orthopaedists, given an increase in degenerative disease and fragility fractures associated with aging. The federal government predicts an overall shortage of physicians by 2020. Given the current nature of workforce analysis models and the concerns evoked by these disparate predictions, we, the authors, advocate change. Rather than large studies separated by decades, we recommend routine monitoring of the orthopaedic workforce. Further, we suggest that national, regional, and local organizations, as well as subspecialty societies, work together to monitor current and future orthopaedic workforce needs. Orthopaedic organizations should develop collaborative relationships with experts in the field and devise a true working model that allows for ongoing strategic planning.
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